This is Part 2 to the Jalen Duren RFA analysis. Please read Part 1 here.

With rumors that Jalen Duren is expecting a 30% max and is dissatisfied with how his RFA negotiations have proceeded thus far, we will breakdown potential Sign-and-Trade options and evaluate whether those opportunities meaningfully alter the balance at the RFA table.

The Pistons have rostered 13 players and are $18.675M under the Salary Cap. Duren signing the non-Bird max and being traded within 48 hours would take the Pistons over the cap and trigger the Base Year Compensation rule. That contract is below.

Base Year Compensation is a ‘trade math’ rule that is rarely invoked. In short, exclusively for the purpose of calculating Detroit’s Player Exception – Duren’s outgoing salary is ‘credited’ at 50% of his cap hit. Assuming Duren, Detroit, and the acquiring team agree to the max above, this means that Duren’s salary of $41,240,250 is credited at $20,620,125 of outgoing salary. That credit can be utilized for a:

Standard TPE: $20,870,125
Expanded TPE: $29,715,834; or
Aggregated TPE: $20,870,125 + 100% of additional outgoing salary

However, what makes a BYC S&T challenging is that the acquiring team’s incoming salary is credited at the full 100%. This disparity in trade math requires two vastly asymmetric cap positions just to be legal under the CBA. While an NBA trade is only one “transaction,” each transaction is facilitated by two or more mechanics – at least one for each team. As such, there is a very narrow trading window which Duren, Detroit, and any prospective acquiring club must thread a needle through.

While Detroit has three vehicles to facilitate a trade, the acquiring team only has these vehicles available:

Acquiring team has $40,990,250 in Room;
Acquiring team has previously generated an STPE worth at least $40,990,250;
Acquiring team can generate an ETPE worth $32,992,200 or more; OR
Acquiring team is willing to explore aggregation. (which we will discuss later)

Acquiring team uses Room

UPDATE: Since I started drafting this article, the Lakers acquired Kessler from the Jazz via a BYC S&T. I have left my analysis as-is but the conclusion has been updated to reflect how this impacts Duren.

Following Brooklyn and Chicago’s acquisitions of Randle and Claxton, the only acquiring club with sufficient Room to absorb Duren’s $41,250,000 cap hit are the Los Angeles Lakers. In return, the Lakers could send out:

one or more players, collectively worth up to $ 20,870,125; or
if the Pistons were open to hard capping themselves at the 1st Apron, the Lakers could send out one or more players, collectively worth up to $ 29,715,834

The Lakers’ outgoing package could consist of something like Vanderbilt, Ayton, Thiero, and draft capital though that would be a woefully insufficient return for Duren plus Los Angeles would likely have challenges under the minimum roster count. Of all the players currently rostered, I do not see a world where Los Angeles can send back enough to entice Detroit into a S&T. In theory, Los Angeles could send a package consisting solely of draft capital, enabling Detroit to generate a S-TPE worth $ 20,870,125 – but again, I do not see that moving the needle for Detroit.

The Lakers were the only eligible Room team and they do not have a package that makes sense. (I guess I underestimated how much draft capital the Lakers were willing to send for something like this). There was a Room team eligible, but now there are no Room teams eligible.

This reduces Duren’s leverage at RFA.

Acquiring team uses an existing S-TPE

In order for an acquiring team to acquire Duren into an already-generated S-TPE, that S-TPE would need to be worth at least $41,240,250 ( $40,990,250 in outgoing salary). There is no S-TPE large enough for Jalen Duren’s max. Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball Trade Exception will be the largest TPE generated in NBA history and even that will only be credited at $40,770,520. While Ball’s exception is $219,730 short of Duren’s max, Duren could take 24.87% and fit into the Ball exception which would have to be utilized as a non-simultaneous S-TPE. A S&T must be for either three or four seasons in length, in this situation that would look like:

In return, Detroit could receive Naz Reid, and draft capital. (If Detroit wanted to include another player such as Diabate or McNeeley – they would need to complete an additional transaction as Naz Reid was acquired via a TPE)

In order for this to happen, these transactions must occur in this order:

Trade 1 – Dated July 6, 2026.
- Charlotte acquires draft capital in exchange for LaMelo Ball, generating a S-TPE worth $41,020,520. This trade must occur July 6, 2026 at 12:01PM ET or later as the Bulls are utilizing 2026-27 cap space.
Trade 2 – Dated after Trade 1.
- Minnesota acquires Josh Green via S-TPE; Charlotte acquires Naz Reid via E-TPE (Green’s $14,679,012 + $9,097,860 = $23,776,872), hard capped at 1st Apron.
Trade 3 – Dated after Trade 2.
- Charlotte acquires Duren ($41,020,520) via the LaMelo Ball S-TPE, triggering a hard cap at the 1st Apron (which is immaterial as they were hard capped after Trade 2). Detroit acquires Naz Reid, and draft capital via the Duren BYC S&T E-TPE, hard capped at 1st Apron.
Trade 2 and 3 cannot be merged into one multi-team transaction due to Minnesota’s other extensions/acquisitions.

While this is all legal under the CBA, the actual on-court considerations push this closer to “cap theory” than anything else.

Charlotte is effectively replacing Ball with Duren, swapping their primary offensive engine for an all-NBA center who makes a shade less. If I were Charlotte I would not do this trade unless I already had avenues to source another premier playmaker – while I acknowledge how exciting a trio of Knueppel/Miller/Duren could be, I think Reid is a great vet to have around your core and I am excited to see how he lines up next to Diabate.

Detroit replaces Duren with Reid, swapping their all-NBA center for a 6th Man of the Year. Yes, Reid makes significantly less money over the next few years and relieves Detroit’s cap horizon; however, I have reservations over Reid’s ability to slot into the five full-time. If I were Detroit I would only consider this if the Duren relationship was irreparable, I was getting multiple first round picks back, and I felt Reid could play full-time minutes at the five. While Reid is an extremely intriguing offensive fit alongside Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson, there are significant uncertainties and Detroit would likely need a high-rotation, physical center to complement this move.

In any event, I went through this exercise to game out the BYC S&T, which was only made possible fresh off the heels of the largest trade exception in NBA history. And while this exact framework is possible, I do not believe it’s potential would materially improve Duren’s negotiation posture. If Charlotte were very interested, then this would certainly move the needle towards an amicable resolution; however, because Charlotte has no cap space, I cannot see Detroit losing much leverage here due to the looming RFA rights.

Under the acquiring team’s Room or any S-TPE – there are only two valid trades in the entire NBA (only one following Kessler). However, if we open possibilities to the Expanded TPE or even Aggregated TPE, a few more possibilities emerge.

Acquiring team sends out multiple traded players

While there is a wider, but still relatively narrow, range of possible trade partners, for the scope of this article we will be focusing on the Sacramento Kings due to their presence in active rumors. Assuming that every team is over the cap and any S&T is facilitated via an over the cap TPE, there are zero valid trades in the NBA where Detroit could send out Duren + Duncan Robinson.

The acquiring team has $58,492,957 incoming, and must send out $46,794,366 or more to utilize the ETPE, which only includes the 24 highest paid players. However, from Detroit’s perspective - those 24 contracts exceed the allowable Detroit incoming salary because Duren’s outgoing is credited at half. Then from Detroit’s perspective, in order to use the ETPE, they can only take back a maximum amount of $46,553,696 – which includes the entire league BUT the highest paid 24 players. And for the acquiring teams with the bottom ~94% of player contracts in the league, Duren + Robinson exceeds the allowable incoming salary because Duren’s incoming is credited at full value.

In short – in order for a team to acquire Duren + Duncan, they must send out $46,794,366; however, Detroit can only ever take back a maximum of $46,553,696 which is $240,670 short. Detroit must add a third player.

The easiest 3:X trade would be Duren + Duncan + Tolu Smith.

- Sacramento’s incoming salary would be: $60,904,047. Sacramento would have to waive DeRozan to make this trade fit under the 1st Apron

- The maximum Detroit could take back after Sabonis would be $3,251,238 which includes Karaban, Raynaud, and Cardwell

I identified this as the easiest because Tolu Smith has a cap hit of $2,411,090 which facilitates trade math, but also $0 guaranteed which would alleviate Sacramento’s books post-trade if they needed.

After this trade, Sacramento would be $2.630M under the 1st Apron; this would increase to $19.033M under the 1st Apron if they waived Robinson and Smith.

Following this trade, Detroit would have $159.170M committed where they would still be $5.791M under the cap. Most importantly, they would have $49.9M under the 1st Apron.

In short a 3:1 or 3:2 trade would be possible. The more money Detroit sends out, the more they could acquire; however, due to Sacramento’s existing commitments, there is an inherent maximum unless Sacramento were to shed significant salary on top of already waiving DeRozan.

Following the initial wave of Free Agency:

Detroit: The acquisitions of John Collins, Isaiah Joe, and Kevin Huerter do not affect this trade’s legality. Collins looks like he will be acquired via Room(?) or via S&T of his own? not sure; Joe, generating an S-TPE; and Huerter likely via one of the MLEs
Sacramento: Following the acquisition of Precious Achiuwa, the Kings would no longer be able to facilitate this trade as they would exceed the 1st Apron. In order for this to work, the Pistons would have to include more money. In order to generate a ~$3M excess for the Kings, the Pistons would have to include ~$8M on top of Duren + Duncan.

A 3:X trade is the only possible multi-player permutation due to the asymmetric BYC S&T. After which, both teams would be hard-capped at the 1st Apron due to a wide variety of triggers along the way. Similar to the theoretical Charlotte trade above, I would not say either team really improves.

CONCLUSION

Duren can be Signed and Traded. However, the Base Year Compensation rule makes the trade math extremely difficult to find a valid trade suitor. There was only one valid team via the Room, there is only one S-TPE large enough and it would require Duren to take a shade under his max, and any multi-player trade would require Detroit to include Duncan Robinson and at least one more player. While this is easy in theory or on a spreadsheet, it is very complex and would have to occur after the entire Moratorium is finished, where much of the year’s major opportunities have already been executed.

Additionally, none of the trades explored seem all that enticing for any party – whether it be Detroit, the respective acquiring team, or Duren himself. Therefore, I do not think a S&T is likely and thus, do not see it altering the leverage point at the RFA negotiation table.

I still think Duren will re-sign for less than the 25% max with Detroit. If I had to guess I would imagine that Detroit is holding out around 20% - 21% of the cap.

If Duren wants more money, he does not have much leverage to exploit (unless he takes his qualifying offer). Perhaps he can hold out for a Player Option which will at least get him back on the market with 7+ Years of Service. If Duren signed the Qualifying Offer then he would receive an implied no-trade clause and would become an unrestricted free agent next offseason.

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